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A decade after the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that split the nation and caused turmoil, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is prepared.

That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Structures Not Ready

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially contentious and seismic public vote.

"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."

Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate

The team have analysed the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.

"What troubles everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.

"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly split population where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."

Legal Framework

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would support.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim such a time is looming, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a national vote.

Insufficient Informed Dialogue

Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.

"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. Much has gone on in academia but very few government figures or activists want to engage with the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Federal?"

Book's Approach

In the publication, no writer advocates unification or the status quo. Each authors two pieces that aim for neutrality in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument against, assembling economic and societal statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.

Debates range over identity markers, duties, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.

"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said the writer. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they prefer unity but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.

"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.

Likelihood of Public Vote

McBride thinks a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"

Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified points, he commented. "Somebody will win here and somebody will eventually lose but both parties has has important lessons to learn from the opposing viewpoints."

Call for Broader Debate

Westminster needed to join the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This involves your state. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."